Arizona: Trump 47%, Biden 40%

In a swing state that Joe Biden won four years ago, former President Donald Trump leads by seven points in Arizona, while the most likely Senate matchup is neck-and-neck.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports finds that, if the election were held today, 47% of Likely Arizona voters would vote for Trump, while 40% would vote for Biden. Nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

A five-way matchup – adding independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West along with Green Party candidate Jill Stein – would be closer in Arizona, with Trump at 41% and Biden at 37%, followed by Kennedy (10%), West (2%) and Stein (1%), with seven percent (7%) undecided.

Meanwhile, in the contest to fill the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, likely GOP nominee Kari Lake trails Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego by a slender margin. In a head-to-head matchup, Gallego would get 44% of the vote to 41% for Lake, with five percent (5%) saying they’d vote for some other candidate and 10% undecided. Adding Green Party candidate Arturo Hernandez to the ballot makes the Arizona Senate race even closer, with 40% for Gallego, 39% for Lake, four percent (4%) for Hernandez, three percent (3%) for some other candidate and 13% undecided.

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The survey of 750 Likely Arizona Voters was conducted on June 11-13, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Arizona primary is July 30 and Gallego, unchallenged in the Democratic primary, is his party’s presumed Senate candidate. On the Republican side, Lake’s main primary opponent is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Among likely GOP primary voters, 53% would vote for Lake, while Lamb gets 28%, seven percent (7%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and 12% are undecided.

Lake has been endorsed by Trump, and 44% of likely Republican primary voters say the endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lake, while 21% say Trump’s endorsement makes them less likely to vote for Lake and 32% say the endorsement doesn’t make much difference.

Among all Arizona Likely Voters, the economy (28%) and border security (23%) are considered the most important issues. Fifteen percent (15%) say abortion is the most important issue in this year’s election, while other issues are named as most important by single-digit percentages of voters: climate change (8%), violent crime (7%), government corruption (6%), global conflicts and war (4%) and education (3%).

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports survey of Arizona Likely Voters:

– Inflation has had a significant impact, with 70% saying that, in the last year or two, rising prices have caused them to significantly change their spending habits.

– Sixty-two percent (62%) of Arizona voters would support sending troops to the southern border to stop the flow of illegal immigrants, including 37% who would Strongly Support such a policy. Thirty-one percent (31%) are opposed to using troops on the border, including 17% who are Strongly Opposed. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans at least somewhat support sending troops to the southern border to stop the flow of illegal immigrants, as do 39% of Democrats and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

– Concerns about election integrity remain important to many Arizona voters. Sixty percent (60%) are concerned that cheating will affect the outcome of the 2024 election, including 33% who are Very Concerned. Fifty-seven percent (57%) would support a policy of hand-counting ballots and only supplying mail-in ballots to those who request them. Fifteen percent (15%) say they or someone they know received more ballots than the number of registered voters at their address.

– With the major tax cuts put in place by President Trump set to expire in January 2025, 36% would be more likely to support a candidate who favored extending Trump’s tax cuts, while 22% would be less likely to support such a candidate and 32% say it would not make much difference.

– Arizona voters favor deportation over amnesty for illegal aliens. Forty-one percent (41%) would support legislation to grant amnesty to illegal aliens and allow them to become permanent US residents, while 56% support a policy of deporting all illegal aliens. Given a choice between two candidates, one of whom favored granting amnesty to all illegal aliens, and one of whom favored deporting all illegal aliens, 44% would vote for the candidate favoring deportation, 35% would vote for the candidate favoring amnesty, and 21% are not sure.

Two-thirds of American voters are worried that cheating could affect this year’s election, and many of them still don’t trust electronic voting machines.

While some have touted Nikki Haley as a potential Republican vice presidential candidate, most voters say adding the former United Nations Ambassador to the ticket wouldn’t make a difference.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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