The House: Democrats Favored on What Starts as a Small Battlefield By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency in 2024.
— Little that’s happened over the last several months calls into question that initial, gut-level assessment. Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so. Republicans do have a couple of factors working in their favor, though, that could help them as they seek to defy history.
— Our initial House ratings reflect a small House map, with Democrats narrowly ahead 209-207 in the seats that at least lean to one party or the other, with 19 Toss-ups.