Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 45%
Democrat Joe Biden holds a four-point lead in Pennsylvania, a state that appears essential to President Trump’s reelection.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania finds Biden leading Trump 49% to 45%. Two weeks ago, Biden had a 50% to 45% lead. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Biden leads 50% to 47%.
In 2016, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by less than a point to carry Pennsylvania with just over 48% support.
Forty-three percent (43%) of voters in the Keystone State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads by 73% to 23%. Trump has a two-to-one advantage – 62% to 31% - among those who have yet to vote.
Ninety-two percent (92%) of all voters in Pennsylvania have made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden has a 52% to 47% advantage in this group.
Among the 93% who definitely plan to vote, the Democrat leads 50% to 46%.
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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted October 31-November 1, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters in Pennsylvania view Trump’s overall job performance as the most important issue in the election. Just as many (28%) rate the economy first in importance, followed by 22% who feel that way about the coronavirus. Other issues aren’t nearly as important as far as the state’s voters are concerned: public safety (5%); racial justice (4%); national security (4%); illegal immigration (2%) and something else (4%).
Biden earns 58% support among voters who see Trump’s job performance as most important and 84% of those who emphasize the coronavirus. Among those who put the economy first, 75% choose the president.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters in Pennsylvania approve of the job Trump is doing, while 49% disapprove. This includes 37% who Strongly Approve and 43% who Strongly Disapprove. Pennsylvania voters are more critical of the president’s job performance that voters nationally in the Rasmussen Reports Daily President Tracking Poll.
Governor Tom Wolf, a Democrat, earns 51% job approval, with 27% who Strongly Approve. Forty-five percent (45%) disapprove of the governor’s job performance, including 32% who Strongly Disapprove.
More voters plan to vote in person after all as Election Day approaches, with confidence even higher that all votes will be correctly counted.
Democrats strongly agree with Biden that America is entering “a dark winter” because of the coronavirus, but other voters aren’t nearly as gloomy. Trump is more upbeat, promising a COVID-19 vaccine soon, and most voters say they’re likely to get one.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted October 31-November 1, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
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