Florida: Biden 48%, Trump 47%

Going into Election Day, Democrat Joe Biden and President Trump are in a virtual tie in the critical state of Florida.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Florida finds Biden edging President Trump by one point - 48% to 47%. A week ago, Trump had a 49% to 46% lead. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and the numbers don’t change: It’s Biden 48%, Trump 47%.

In 2016, Trump earned 49% of the vote in Florida, edging Democrat Hillary Clinton by 1.2 points to carry the state.

Ninety percent (90%) of voters in the Sunshine State have made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden holds a one-point lead - 49% to 48% - among this group, too.

Among the 68% who say they have already voted, the Democrat leads by eight – 52% to 44%. Trump has a 15-point advantage among those who have yet to vote.

The two candidates are tied at 48% apiece among the 95% of Florida voters who say they are definitely going to vote.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted October 29-31, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Biden has taken a three-point lead nationally over Trump in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch survey. This survey will be updated for the last time tomorrow morning at 10:30 Eastern.

Thirty percent (30%) of voters in Florida view Trump’s overall job performance as the most important issue in the election. Twenty-seven percent (27%) rate the economy first in importance, followed by 21% who feel that way about the coronavirus. Other issues aren’t nearly as important as far as the state’s voters are concerned: racial justice (6%); public safety (5%); national security (4%); illegal immigration (3%) and something else (2%).

Biden earns 58% support among voters who see Trump’s job performance as most important and 81% of those who emphasize the coronavirus. Among those who put the economy first, 83% choose the president.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Florida voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 47% disapprove. This includes 42% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove. Trump’s job approval in the state is comparable to the numbers he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports Daily President Tracking Poll. 

Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, earns 50% approval, with 36% who Strongly Approve. Forty-four percent (44%) disapprove of the governor’s job performance, including 31% who Strongly Disapprove.

More voters plan to vote in person after all as Election Day approaches, with confidence even higher that all votes will be correctly counted.

Democrats strongly agree with Biden that America is entering “a dark winter” because of the coronavirus, but other voters aren’t nearly as gloomy.Trump is more upbeat, promising a COVID-19 vaccine soon, and most voters say they’re likely to get one.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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