Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 45%

President Trump trails Democrat Joe Biden by five points in Pennsylvania, a state that was key to Trump’s election in 2016.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania finds Biden leading Trump 50% to 45%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Biden leads 50% to 47%.

In 2016, Trump edged Democrat Hillary Clinton by less than a point to carry Pennsylvania with just over 48% support.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters in the Keystone State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads 78% to 19%.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of all voters in Pennsylvania have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden leads 53% to 46% among these voters.

Among the 92% who definitely plan to vote, the Democrat leads 52% to 44%.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted October 18-19, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Biden holds a five-point lead nationally over Trump in Rasmussen Reports’ latest weekly White House Watch survey. Those findings will be updated at noon Eastern tomorrow.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Pennsylvania voters consider Trump’s overall job performance as the most important voting issue. Thirty percent (30%) put the economy first. Other issues don’t come close as far as the state’s voters are concerned: public safety (9%); national security (8%); the environment (5%); illegal immigration (3%), and something else (6%).

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters who rate Trump’s job performance as most important are voting for Biden. Among those who put the economy first, 66% are voting for the president.

Fifty percent (50%) of voters in Pennsylvania approve of the job Trump is doing, while 49% disapprove. This includes 40% who Strongly Approve and 44% who Strongly Disapprove. Trump earns slightly higher job approval in Pennsylvania than he does nationally in the Rasmussen Reports Daily President Tracking Poll.

Governor Tom Wolf, a Democrat, earns 54% job approval, with 27% who Strongly Approve. Forty-two percent (42%) disapprove of the governor’s job performance, including 29% who Strongly Disapprove.

Slightly more than half of voters nationwide still say they are more likely to vote against Trump, a finding that hasn’t changed in a year of regular surveying.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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