Arizona Senate: Kelly (D) 48%, McSally (R) 43%

Democratic challenger Mark Kelly has grown his lead over incumbent Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s U.S. Senate special election race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Kelly with 48% support to McSally’s 43%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, while five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Just over a week ago, Kelly had just a 46% to 44% lead.

Among the 70% who say they have already voted, Kelly leads by 10 - 53% to 43%.

Ninety-five percent (95%) say they are certain to vote in this election. Kelly is ahead 49% to 45% among these voters.

McSally, a former Air Force fighter pilot and member of the U.S. Congress, was named to the Senate in 2019 by Republican Governor Doug Ducey to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of Senator Jon Kyl. Kelly, a retired Navy captain and astronaut, is seeking his first political office. He is married to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords who was nearly killed in a 2011 assassination attempt.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted October 27-29, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

President Trump has moved to a three-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Arizona just days before Election Day.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Arizona voters rate the economy as the most important issue in the election, followed by 25% who put the emphasis on Trump’s overall job performance. Next comes the coronavirus, most important for 21%. Other issues don’t come close as far as the state’s voters are concerned: public safety (5%); racial justice (5%); illegal immigration (5%); national security (3%) and something else (5%).

McSally has 73% support among voters who put the economy first. Sixty-two percent (62%) of those who consider Trump’s job performance most important and 76% of those who feel that way about the coronavirus choose Kelly.

Kelly continues to have his biggest lead among voters under 40, while McSally runs strongest among middle-aged voters.

McSally earns 81% of the state’s Republican vote. Kelly has 86% support among Arizona Democrats and leads by eight among voters not affiliated with either major party.

More voters plan to vote in person after all as Election Day approaches, with confidence even higher that all votes will be correctly counted.

Democrats strongly agree with Biden that America is entering “a dark winter” because of the coronavirus, but other voters aren’t nearly as gloomy. Trump is more upbeat, promising a COVID-19 vaccine soon, and most voters say they’re likely to get one.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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