Arizona Senate: Kelly (D) 46%, McSally (R) 44%

Democratic challenger Mark Kelly has a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s hotly contested U.S. Senate special election race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Kelly edging McSally 46% to 44%. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, while another five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among the 57% who say they have already voted, Kelly has a sizable 57% to 37% lead.

Ninety-six percent (96%) say they are certain to vote in this election. Kelly leads by two - 47% to 45% - among these voters.

McSally, a former Air Force fighter pilot and member of the U.S. Congress, was named to the Senate in 2019 by Republican Governor Doug Ducey to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of Senator Jon Kyl. Kelly, a retired navy captain and astronaut, is seeking his first political office. He is married to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords who was nearly killed in a 2011 assassination attempt.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted October 18-19, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie in Arizona, a state Trump carried by three-and-a-half points in 2016.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters in Arizona rate Trump’s overall job performance as the most important issue in the election. Nearly as many (30%) consider the economy first in importance. Other issues don’t come close as far as the state’s voters are concerned: public safety (12%); national security (7%); illegal immigration (6%); the environment (5%) and something else (4%).

Kelly wins 65% support among those who put Trump’s job performance first. Sixty percent (60%) of voters who rate the economy most important prefer McSally.

Kelly has his biggest lead among those under 40, while McSally runs strongest among middle-aged voters.

Both candidates carry roughly 80% of the vote among those in their respective parties. Kelly holds a 12-point lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Fifty percent (50%) of Democrats nationwide say they are more likely to vote absentee or by some other mail-in ballot in this election, compared to 22% of GOP voters and 43% of unaffiliateds.

Early voting is available in most states, and Democrats (79%) are far more likely to vote early than Republicans (52%) and unaffiliated voters (62%).

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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