Arizona: Trump 48%, Biden 45%

President Trump has moved to a three-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Arizona just days before Election Day.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Trump leading Biden 48% to 45%. Little over a week ago, the Democrat had a 48% to 46% advantage. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Trump gains a point, taking a 49% to 45% lead.

In 2016, Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by three-and-a-half points in Arizona, carrying 48% of the state’s voters.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Arizona voters say they’ve made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Trump has a negligible 49% to 48% advantage among this group.

Seventy percent (70%) have already voted. The Democrat nominee has a seven-point lead among these voters.

Among the 95% of voters in the state who definitely plan to vote, Trump leads 48% to 46%.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted October 27-29, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Biden and Trump are running neck-and-neck in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch survey. These findings are updated at 10:30 am Eastern daily.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Arizona voters rate the economy as the most important issue in the election, followed by 25% who put the emphasis on Trump’s overall job performance. Next comes the coronavirus, most important for 21%. Other issues don’t come close as far as the state’s voters are concerned: public safety (5%); racial justice (5%); illegal immigration (5%); national security (3%) and something else (5%).

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of voters who consider the economy most important are voting for Trump. Sixty-one percent (61%) of those who put Trump’s job performance first and 74% of those who feel that way about the coronavirus prefer Biden.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Arizona voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 47% disapprove. This includes 41% who Strongly Approve and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. Trump’s job approval in Arizona is comparable to what he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Republican Governor Doug Ducey earns 46% approval, with 19% who Strongly Approve. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove of the governor’s job performance, including 25% who Strongly Disapprove.

More voters plan to vote in person after all as Election Day approaches, with confidence even higher that all votes will be correctly counted.

Democrats strongly agree with Biden that America is entering “a dark winter” because of the coronavirus, but other voters aren’t nearly as gloomy. Trump is more upbeat, promising a COVID-19 vaccine soon, and most voters say they’re likely to get one.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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