Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 46%

President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie in Arizona, a state Trump carried by three-and-a-half points in 2016.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Biden leading Trump 48% to 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while another three percent (3%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Biden has a minimal 48% to 47% lead.

In 2016, Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in Arizona, carrying 48% of the state’s voters.

Ninety-four percent (94%) of Arizona voters have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden leads 49% to 48% among this group.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) have already voted. The Democrat nominee has a commanding 20-point lead among these voters.

Among the 96% of voters in the state who definitely plan to vote, Biden leads 48% to 46%.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted October 18-19, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Biden holds a five-point lead nationally over Trump in Rasmussen Reports’ latest weekly White House Watch survey. These findings will be updated at noon Eastern today.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters in Arizona rate Trump’s overall job performance as the most important issue in the election. Nearly as many (30%) consider the economy first in importance. Other issues don’t come close as far as the state’s voters are concerned: public safety (12%); national security (7%); illegal immigration (6%); the environment (5%) and something else (4%).

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters who consider Trump’s job performance as most important are voting for Biden. Among those who put the economy first, 63% choose the president.

Fifty percent (50%) of Arizona voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 49% disapprove. This includes 41% who Strongly Approve and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. Trump earns higher job approval in the state than he does nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Republican Governor Doug Ducey earns 45% approval, with 17% who Strongly Approve. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove of the governor’s job performance, including 22% who Strongly Disapprove.

Slightly more than half of all voters nationwide still say they are more likely to vote against Trump, a finding that hasn’t changed in a year of regular surveying.

Eighty percent (80%) of those who plan to vote for Biden are likely to vote early, compared to 46% of those who support Trump. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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