Ohio: Biden 48%, Trump 46%

Democrat Joe Biden has the edge over President Trump in Ohio, a Republican-leaning state that is a must-win for the president in his bid for reelection.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Ohio shows Biden leading Trump 48% to 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Biden’s lead shrinks to one point – 48% to 47%.

In 2016, Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by eight points in Ohio, carrying nearly 52% of the state’s voters.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters in the Buckeye State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads by a whopping 61% to 34%.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of all voters in Ohio have already made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden leads 50% to 48% among this group.

Among the 92% who definitely plan to vote, the Democrat leads 49% to 46%.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted October 18-19, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Biden holds a five-point lead nationally over Trump in Rasmussen Reports’ latest weekly White House Watch survey. Those findings will be updated at noon Eastern tomorrow.

One-in-three Ohio voters (34%) rate Trump’s overall job performance as the most important issue in the election. Nearly as many put the emphasis on the economy (32%). Other issues don’t come close as far as the state’s voters are concerned: public safety (11%); the environment (7%); national security (6%); illegal immigration (3%), and something else (4%).

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters who rate Trump’s job performance as most important are voting for Biden. Among those who put the economy first, 65% are opting for the president.

Fifty percent (50%) of voters in Ohio approve of the job Trump is doing, while 49% disapprove. This includes 39% who Strongly Approve and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. Trump earns slightly higher job approval in Ohio than he does nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily President Tracking Poll. 

Republican Governor Mike DeWine earns 69% approval, with 27% who Strongly Approve. Just 27% disapprove of the governor’s job performance, including nine percent (9%) who Strongly Disapprove.

Slightly more than half of voters still say they are more likely to vote against Trump, a finding that hasn’t changed in a year of regular surveying.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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