GOP Congressional Lead Now at 8 Points

The 2020 midterm elections are now 123 days away, and Republicans have an eight-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The Republican lead has increased by three points since last week, when they led 47%-42%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In July 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a six-point advantage (46% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 5-7, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 12-point advantage among independents. While 88% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, just 79% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 43% would vote Republican and 31% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 16% are undecided.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 27% of black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-one percent (61%) of black voters, 36% of whites and 41% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (53%) now nine points more likely than women voters (44%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was seven points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 47% to 38%, but 53% of voters 40 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Republican support is highest among private sector workers and retirees, while Democrats do best among government employees.

Republicans lead 50%-40%among voters with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, while Democratic support is highest among voters with annual incomes over $200,000.

Many voters still believe cheating affected the 2020 presidential election, and a majority fear the upcoming midterm elections could be tainted by cheating.

By an overwhelming margin, voters don’t want President Joe Biden to seek reelection, and they’re not excited about two possible alternatives in 2024, either.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdownare available to Platinum Members only.

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