Election Integrity: 50% Think Cheating Likely in Midterms

Many voters still believe cheating affected the 2020 presidential election, and a majority fear the upcoming midterm elections could be tainted by cheating.

A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and The National Pulse finds that 52% of Likely U.S. voters believe it is at least somewhat likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, including 36% who think it is Very Likely. Forty-three percent (43%) don’t believe it’s likely cheating affected the 2020 outcome, including 30% who say it’s Not At All Likely. These findings are similar to previous surveys in May and March. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Fifty percent (50%) of voters think it is at least somewhat likely there will be widespread cheating that will affect the outcome of this fall’s congressional elections, including 24% who say it’s Very Likely. Forty-one percent (41%) don’t believe cheating is likely to affect the November midterms, including 22% who say it’s Not At All Likely.

Voters remain skeptical of the integrity of vote-by-mail. Fifty-eight percent (58%) think it’s at least somewhat likely that wider use of mail-in voting will lead to more cheating in elections, including 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-six percent (36%) don’t believe mail-in voting is likely to lead to more cheating, including 16% who say it’s Not At All Likely. In October 2021, 65% said wider use of mail-in voting would lead to more cheating in elections.

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The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 5, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports and The National Pulse. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Asked which is more important in elections, 59% say making sure there is no cheating is more important, while 38% say making it easier for everybody to vote is more important. Those findings are almost unchanged from May.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Republicans, 37% of Democrats and 64% of voters not affiliated with either major party think it’s more important to make sure there is no cheating in elections. Sixty percent (60%) of Democrats, 20% of Republicans and 33% of unaffiliated voters say making it easier for everybody to vote is more important.

On every question, Republican voters are more concerned about cheating in elections.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Republicans believe it is Very Likely that wider use of mail-in voting will lead to more cheating in elections, an opinion shared by 20% of Democrats and 41% of unaffiliated voters.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Republicans, 16% of Democrats and 39% of unaffiliated voters think it is Very Likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Republicans, 36% of Democrats and 43% of unaffiliated voters believe it is at least somewhat likely there will be widespread cheating that will affect the outcome of this fall’s congressional elections.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of whites, 57% of Black voters and 66% of other minorities think it is at least somewhat likely that wider use of mail-in voting will lead to more cheating in elections. Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 38% of Black voters and 56% of other minorities believe it is at least somewhat likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

Voters under 40 are more likely than their elders to think widespread cheating will affect the outcome of this fall’s congressional elections.

Nearly half (48%) of voters earning more than $200,000 a year think it is Very Likely cheating affected the 2020 presidential election.

President Joe Biden’s strongest supporters are least concerned about cheating in elections. Among voters who Strongly Approve of Biden’s performance as president, just nine percent (9%) think it is more important to prevent cheating in elections while 88% believe making it easier for everybody to vote is more important. By contrast, among voters who Strongly Disapprove of Biden’s performance, 92% say it’s more important to prevent cheating in elections and just seven percent (7%) think making it easier for everybody to vote is more important.

By an overwhelming margin, voters don’t want President Biden to seek reelection, and they’re not excited about two possible alternatives in 2024, either.

The 2022 midterm elections are now barely four months away, and Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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