GOP Lead Slips to 5 Points on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 130 days away, and Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The Republican lead has decreased by three points since last week, when they led 48%-40%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In July 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a six-point advantage (46% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 26-30, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is mainly due to a 15-point advantage among independents. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, and 85% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 44% would vote Republican and 29% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 17% are undecided.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 23% of Black voters and 42% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Black voters, 38% of whites and 41% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed in the latest findings, with men (50%) now seven points more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was 12 points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 49% to 36%, but 50% of voters ages 40-64 and 55% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Republican support is highest among entrepreneurs and retirees, while Democrats do best among government employees.

Voters with annual incomes over $200,000 favor Democrats 49%-43%, while Republican support is strongest among voters with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.

Illegal immigration will be an important issue in the midterm elections, according to most voters, who say the problem is getting worse.

Most voters expect crime to be an important issue in the midterm elections, and President Joe Biden’s approval on the issue has declined.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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