Republicans Expand Lead on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 263 days away, and Republicans have a 13-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 50% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 37% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Republicans have added four points to their congressional advantage since January, when they led 48%-39%. The current 13-point GOP lead matches the November survey, but Democrats are now one point lower than they were in November.

In January 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held an eight-point advantage (45% to 37%) in the generic ballot question. That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on February 13-17, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The 13-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 22-point advantage among independents. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 24% would vote Democrats, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 32% of black voters and 48% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of black voters, 33% of whites and 36% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” is small in the latest findings, with men (52%) just three points more likely than women voters (49%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 45% to 39%, but the majority of older voters – 53% of those ages 40-64 and 59% of those 65 and older – would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 54% to 34% – among voters earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.

The Republican advantage is strongest among retirees, who favor the GOP by a 25-point margin, 58%-33%, over Democrats.

A majority of voters think special counsel John Durham’s accusations against Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign are very important, and agree with former President Donald Trump that it’s a scandal worse than Watergate.

Most voters believe that President Joe Biden’s mental abilities have declined since he took office, and two-thirds agree with GOP members of Congress who have urged the president to take a cognitive test and release the results.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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