Republicans Maintain Lead on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 294 days away, and Republicans maintain a strong lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

These findings are unchanged from December.

In January 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held an eight-point advantage (45% to 37%) in the generic ballot question.That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on January 9-13, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The nine-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is still larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 15-point advantage among independents.While 87% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 43% would vote Republican and 28% would vote Democrats, while nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 32% of black voters and 46% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-seven percent (52%) of black voters, 36% of whites and 38% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” is nearly non-existent in the latest findings, as men and women voters are almost the same in their party preferences for the congressional election.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 45% to 38%, but the majority of older voters – 53% of those ages 40-64 and 54% of those 65 and older – would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 52% to 36% – among voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year. Democrats lead by a nine-point margin, 49% to 40%, among voters with annual incomes of $200,000 or more.

The Republican advantage is smaller among voters who attended college, and Democrats have a substantial edge – 47% to 42% – among those with postgraduate degrees.

Entrepreneurs and retirees strongly favor the GOP, and Republicans have a 13-point lead among private sector workers, while government employees favor Democrats by a six-point margin.

While many voters have become skeptical toward the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a majority of Democrats embrace restrictive policies, including punitive measures against those who haven’t gotten the COVID-19 vaccine.

Democrats are pushing to end the U.S. Senate’s filibuster rule, but most voters think this “important distinction” between the House and Senate is worth preserving.

Additional information rom this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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