N.H. Senate: Pappas 50%, Sununu 44%

Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas now leads by six points over former Republican Sen. John Sununu in the race to fill the New Hampshire Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 50% of Likely New Hampshire voters would vote for Pappas, while 44% would vote for Sununu. Four percent (4%) would vote for Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante, one percent (1%) would choose independent candidate Tim Harris and two percent (2%) are not sure. Pappas has slightly expanded his lead since early October, when he led by five points, 49% to 44%.  (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Pappas is supported by 73% of Democratic voters, as well as 17% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republicans would vote for Sununu, along with 23% of Democrats and 32% of unaffiliated voters. Five percent (5%) of unaffiliated voters are still undecided.

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The survey of 970 New Hampshire Likely Voters was conducted on  October 20-23, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ninety-one percent (91%) of all New Hampshire Likely Voters are excited about voting in the midterm elections, including 61% who say they’re Very Excited. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Democrats, 60% of Republicans and 58% of unaffiliated voters are Very Excited about voting in the midterm elections.

The “gender gap” is 18 points in the New Hampshire Senate race. Women voters favor Pappas by a 15-point margin, 53% to 38%, while men support Sununu 49% to 46%. More men (65%) than women voters (58%) are Very Excited about voting in the midterms.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of whites, 44% of black voters, 76% of Hispanics and 45% of other minorities would vote for Pappas, while 45% of whites, 52% of black voters, 24% of Hispanics and 35% of other minorities would vote for Sununu.

Pappas leads by a 33-point margin (63% to 30%) among voters 65 and older, while a majority of voters under 40 favor Sununu.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of New Hampshire voters who identify as Very Liberal would vote for Pappas, while 84% of Very Conservative voters support Sununu. Pappas leads by a 33-point margin, 62% to 29%, among moderate voters.

Among those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, 83% would vote for Pappas, while 75% of Donald Trump voters favor Sununu.

The Democratic Party now leads Republicans by five points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is now tied with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown  are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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