N.H. Senate: Lead Narrows for Democrat Pappas

Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas now leads by five points over former Republican Sen. John Sununu in the race to fill the New Hampshire Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely New Hampshire voters would vote for Pappas, while 44% would vote for Sununu.

Three percent (3%) would vote for Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante and  four percent (4%) are not sure. Sununu has gained ground since early September, when Pappas led by 11 points, 45% to 34%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Pappas is supported by 89% of Democratic voters, as well as 15% of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans would vote for Sununu, along with eight percent (8%) of Democrats and 44% of unaffiliated voters. Eleven percent (11%) of unaffiliated voters are still undecided.

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The survey of 979 New Hampshire Likely Voters was conducted on  October 2-4, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The “gender gap” is now a whopping 31 points in the New Hampshire Senate race. Women voters favor Pappas by a 20-point margin, 53% to 33%, while men support Sununu 53% to 42%.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of whites, 72% of black voters, 51% of Hispanics and 65% of other minorities would vote for Pappas, while 35% of whites, 16% of black voters, 24% of Hispanics and 25% of other minorities would vote for Sununu.

Pappas leads by a 19-point margin (58% to 39%) among voters 65 and older, while a majority of voters under 40 favor Sununu.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of New Hampshire voters who identify as Very Liberal would vote for Pappas, while 88% of Very Conservative voters support Sununu. Pappas leads by a 38-point margin, 63% to 25%, among moderate voters.

Among those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, 86% would vote for Pappas, while 80% of Donald Trump voters favor Sununu.

The battle to control the House of Representatives has become more competitive, as the Democratic Party’s lead over Republicans has decreased for the second week in a row. 

Left-wing commentator Hasan Piker isn’t familiar to many voters, but his support of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas is overwhelmingly rejected. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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