Minnesota Senate: Democrat Flanagan Still Holds Slender Lead

Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan continues leading Republican Michele Tafoya in the race to fill the Minnesota Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely Minnesota voters would vote for Flanagan, while 45% would vote for Tafoya. Seven percent (7%) are not sure. These findings are unchanged from two weeks ago. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In a state that Democrat Kamala Harris won 51% to 47% in 2024, Flanagan is supported by 91% of Democratic voters, as well as five percent (5%) of Republicans and 43% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Republicans would vote for Tafoya, along with six percent (6%) of Democrats and 46% of unaffiliated voters. Eleven percent (11%) of unaffiliated voters are still undecided.

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The survey of 1,182 Minnesota Likely Voters was conducted on October 20-21, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of all Minnesota Likely Voters say they are  excited about voting in the midterm elections, including 54% who are Very Excited.

Ninety-one percent (65%) of Democrats, 50% of Republicans and 47% of unaffiliated voters are Very Excited about voting in the midterms.

The “gender gap” is a net 23 points in the Minnesota Senate race. Women voters favor Flanagan by a 14-point margin, 54% to 40%, while men support Tafoya 51% to 42%. More women voters (57%) than men (51%) are Very Excited about voting in the midterms.

Forty-six percent (46%) of whites, 61% of black voters, 46% of Hispanics and 55% of other minorities would vote for Flanagan, while Tafoya is supported by 48% of whites, 26% of black voters, 41% of Hispanics and 32% of other minorities. White voters are most likely to say they’re Very Excited about voting in the midterm elections.

Flanagan leads by 18 points, 51% to 33%, among voters under 30, while a majority of those ages 40 to 64 favor Tafoya. Seventy percent (70%) of voters 65 and older are Very Excited to vote in the midterms, compared to 32% of those under 30.

Sixty percent (60%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election are Very Excited about voting in the midterm elections, compared to 49% of Donald Trump voters.

A majority of voters turn to the news to get information about candidates, although that reliance has declined.

Last week’s raid on the home of Rep. Ilhan Omar made headlines, but most voters don’t expect the Minnesota Democrat to be convicted of federal crimes – in part because more than a fifth of them don’t seem to know who she is.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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