Most Arizona Voters Believe Election ‘Irregularities’ Affected Outcome

The razor-thin outcome of last year’s Arizona gubernatorial election has made most voters in the state suspicious of the result.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and College Republicans United finds that 55% of Likely Arizona Voters believe it is likely that problems with the 2022 election in Maricopa County affected the outcome, including 35% who think it’s Very Likely.

Forty percent (40%) say it’s not likely that the problems in Maricopa County affected the election outcome, including 29% who believe it is Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Republican candidate Kari Lake officially lost to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs by a margin of about 17,000 of more than 2.5 million votes cast. Lake filed a lawsuit challenging the result, and the state Supreme Court will hear her appeal next week.

Of the 92% of Arizona voters who say they voted in the 2022 election, the new survey found 51% voted for Lake and 43% voted for Hobbs, while five percent (5%) say they voted for some other candidate.

“This survey of actual Arizona voters, with a 3% margin of error, indicates that 8% more of them voted for Lake than voted for Katie Hobbs,” said Richard Thomas, National Chairman of Republicans United.

“That's almost three times the poll margin of error. This raises serious questions about the certified ballot totals in light of the host of reported procedural irregularities.”

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The survey of 1,001 Arizona Likely Voters was conducted on March 13-14, 2023 by Rasmussen Reports and College Republicans United. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

After reports of Election Day problems with vote tabulation in Maricopa County, Lake called the election “botched” and declared: “This isn't about Republicans or Democrats. This is about our sacred right to vote, a right that many voters were, sadly, deprived of on November 8th.”

Fifty-sevent percent (57%) of Arizona voters agree with Lake’s statement, including 36% who Strongly Agree. Thirty-four percent (34%) disagree, including 25% who Strongly Disagree.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Republican voters in Arizona agree with Lake’s quote about the “sacred right to vote,” as do 37% of Democrats and 60% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/College Republicans United survey:

– Lake remains more popular than Hobbs with Arizona voters. Forty-four percent (47%) of Likely Arizona Voters view Hobbs favorably, including 25% who have a Very Favorable impression of the Democratic governor, while 46% view her unfavorably, including 34% who have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Hobbs. Fifty-one percent (51%) view Lake favorably, including 30% who have a Very Favorable impression of the Republican candidate. Forty-two percent (42%) view Lake unfavorably, including 33% who have a Very Unfavorable impression. 

– President Joe Biden is less popular in Arizona than former President Donald Trump. Forty-five percent (45%) of Likely Arizona Voters approve of the job Biden is doing as president, including 24% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove of Biden’s job performance as president, including 44% who Strongly Disapprove. Fifty-two percent (52%) view Trump favorably, including 30% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president. Forty-six percent (46%) view Trump unfavorably, including 37% who have a Very Unfavorable impression.

– Arizona voters overwhelmingly support stronger border enforcement. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of the state’s voters believe the government is doing too little to reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays. Seventy percent (70%) think the government should mandate that all employers use the federal electronic E-Verify system to help ensure that they hire only legal workers. Only 22% of Arizona voters rate the Biden administration as doing a good or excellent job in handling the issue of illegal immigration, while 52% rate the administration as doing a poor job on the issue.

– Although more Arizona voters say they voted for Lake than Hobbs in the 2022 gubernatorial election, there is no similar discrepancy in the state’s U.S. Senate election. Fifty percent (50%) of Arizona voters who voted in 2022 say they chose Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly, while 46% say they voted for GOP challenger Blake Masters. In the official tally, Kelly got 51% to Masters’ 46%.

– Forty-nine percent (49%) of Arizona voters believe it’s likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, including 29% who say it’s Very Likely. Forty-two percent (42%) don’t think cheating affected the presidential election outcome, including 29% who say it is Not At All Likely. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republican voters in Arizona believe it’s at least somewhat likely that cheating affected the 2020 presidential election, as do 29% of Democrats and 48% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

– Thirty-five percent (35%) of Arizona voters say they have seen compelling evidence that makes them believe there was election fraud in the Arizona 2022 elections, while 50% say they haven’t seen such evidence, and another 15% are not sure. Fifty-three percent (53%) of Arizona Republican voters say they’ve seen compelling evidence of election fraud in 2022, as do 17% of Democrats and 32% of unaffiliated voters in the state.

– Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Arizona voters are confident in their state’s elections in general, including 35% who are Very Confident. Thirty-six percent (36%) are not confident in Arizona’s elections, including 13% who are Not At All Confident. While 59% of Arizona Democrats say they’re Very Confident in the state’s elections, only 18% of Republicans and 33% of unaffiliated voters in Arizona share that level of confidence.

– Fifty percent (50%) of Arizona voters believe it is likely that 2022 election irregularities in heavily Republican areas of Arizona happened intentionally to suppress Republican votes, including 31% who say it’s Very Likely. Forty-three percent (43%) don’t think it is likely intentional irregularities suppressed Republican votes in 2022, including 29% who believe it is Not At All Likely. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Arizona Republican voters think such 2022 election irregularities were at least somewhat likely, an opinion shared by 26% of Democrats and 47% of unaffiliated voters.

“Kari Lake came within fractions of a percentage point of winning in the official certified ballot totals,” Chairman Thomas of Republicans United said. “Arizonans must not be left for the next two years with these deep uncertainties about something as fundamental as the integrity of Arizona elections. The Arizona Supreme Court is the only state institution left that's capable of resolving these large popular and procedural election uncertainties in a manner consistent with Arizona law. We wish them the courage, fortitude, and wisdom this complex, contentious, and vital task will require.”

Former President Donald Trump remains more popular among Republican voters than GOP congressional leaders, and a majority of all voters think Trump’s 2020 campaign was sabotaged by D.C. politicians.

Voters overwhelmingly believe America is threatened by Mexican drug cartels, and support proposals to designate the cartels as terrorist organizations.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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