Biden vs. Trump: Guess Who Wins Rematch?

A majority of voters have an unfavorable opinion of President Joe Biden, who would lose a rematch election with former President Donald Trump.

A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports finds that, if the election were held today, just 40% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote to reelect Biden, while 46% would vote for Trump. Another 10% would choose some other candidate in a Biden-Trump rematch. These findings are unchanged since January. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters have an unfavorable impression of Biden, including 43% who have a Very Unfavorable view of the president. Forty-one percent (43%) view Biden favorably, including 22% who have a Very Favorable impression of him.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters view Trump favorably, including 29% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president. Forty-seven percent (47%) view Trump unfavorably, including 38% who have a Very Unfavorable impression of him.

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The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 26-27, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump has stronger support among his own party’s base than does Biden, and independent voters favor Trump over Biden by an eight-point margin. If the election were held today, Trump would get the votes of 77% of Republicans, 20% of Democrats and 42% of voters unaffiliated with either major party, while 70% of Democrats, 15% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters would vote for Biden.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republican voters view Trump favorably, including 57% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democratic voters view Biden favorably, including 42% who have a Very Favorable impression of him. Among unaffiliated voters, 43% view Trump favorably and 36% view Biden favorably.

In a rematch, 48% of whites, 28% of Black voters and 48% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 52% of Black voters, 41% of whites and 30% of other minorities would vote for Biden.

There is not much evidence of a “gender gap” in a hypothetical Trump-Biden rematch, although more men (32%) than women voters (27%) have a Very Favorable impression of Trump.

A majority (52%) of voters 65 and older would choose Trump in a rematch with Biden, and Trump would beat Biden 48%-41% among voters ages 40-64. Voters under 40 slightly favor Biden (39%) over Trump (38%).

A majority (51%) of voters with annual incomes over $200,000 view Biden favorably, while 52% of those with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 have a Very Unfavorable impression of the president. In a hypothetical rematch election, Biden would get 58% of the votes of those earning more than $200,000 a year, while those with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 would favor Trump by a 28-point margin, 59%-31%.

In a rematch with Biden, Trump would do best among entrepreneurs (50%) and retirees (49%).

A special congressional committee has spent weeks holding televised hearings about the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, but with apparently little effect on public opinion.

Barely one-in-five voters think it would be good for Democrats if President Joe Biden seeks reelection in 2024, and most think Republicans are headed for victory in the November midterms.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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