Republican Congressional Lead Shrinks

The 2022 midterm elections are now 102 days away, and Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The Republican lead is down five points from last week, when they led 49%-39%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In July 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a seven-point advantage (47% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 24-28, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead is mainly due to a 10-point advantage among independents. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 80% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 41% would vote Republican and 31% would vote Democrat, while 11% would vote for some other candidate and 17% are undecided.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of whites, 21% of Black voters and 42% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty percent (60%) of Black voters, 37% of whites and 39% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed in the latest findings, with men (49%) now six points more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was eight points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 10-point margin, 45% to 35%, but 49% of voters ages 40-64 and 55% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Republican support is highest among entrepreneurs and retirees.

Republicans lead by 11 points, 48%-37% among voters with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, while Democrats have a 10-point advantage, 49% to 39%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000.

Barely one-in-five voters think it would be good for Democrats if President Joe Biden seeks reelection in 2024, and most think Republicans are headed for victory in the November midterms.

A special congressional committee has spent weeks holding televised hearings about the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, but with apparently little effect on public opinion.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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