Trump-Backed Candidates Lead Arizona GOP Primary

Three top statewide candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump are ahead of the Republican primary field in Arizona.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and the Arizona Rock Products Association finds that 31% of Likely Arizona Republican primary voters would vote for businessman Blake Masters in the U.S. Senate race. Nineteen percent (19%) would vote for businessman Jim Lamon, while 16% would vote for state attorney general Attorney General Mark Brnovich, 10% would vote for retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Mick McGuire, three percent (3%) would vote for former state Rep. Justin Olson, six percent (6%) would vote for some other candidate and 15% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Masters has been endorsed by Trump, as have gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem, both of whom also lead their races just days before next Tuesday’s closely-watched GOP primary in Arizona.

Lake, a former TV journalist, has a nine-point lead, 43%-34%, over former Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson. They are trailed by Paola Tulliani-Zen (4%) and Scott Neely (3%), while another five percent (5%) of likely GOP primary voters would vote for some other candidate and 11% are undecided.

Finchem, a state representative, leads by 11 points, 27%-16%, over businessman Beau Lane in the Republican primary for secretary of state, followed closely by state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita (12%) and state Rep. Shawnna Bolick (11%). Ten percent (10%) of likely primary voters prefer some other candidates and another 25% are undecided.

“We are proud to be sponsoring Rasmussen Reports Arizona GOP Primary Election Survey, bringing one of America's top public opinion firms into our state for these important early races,” said Steve Trussell, Executive Director of the Arizona Rock Products Association (ARPA).

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The survey of 710 Likely Arizona Republican Primary Voters was conducted on July 27-28, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports and the Arizona Rock Products Association. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The leads for candidates endorsed by Trump is not surprising, given that 75% of likely Arizona GOP primary voters surveyed said they voted for Trump in 2020.

Another Trump-endorsed candidate, Army Reserve intelligence officer and former prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh, has a narrow lead, 26%-21%, over Tucson attorney Rodney Glassman in the GOP primary contest for state attorney general. Another 12% of likely primary voters support former state Supreme Court Justice Andrew Gould, trailed by Dawn Grove (6%), Lacy Cooper and Tiffany Shedd (both 4%). Six percent (6%) of likely GOP primary voters prefer some other candidate for state attorney general, while another 20% are undecided.

In the Republican primary for state superintendent of public instruction, former state attorney general Tom Horne has a solid lead with 38%, followed by businesswoman Shiry Sapir (18%) and state Rep. Michelle Udall (16%). Six percent (6%) of likely GOP primary voters prefer some other candidate for superintendent, while another 22% are undecided.

The Republican primary contest for Arizona corporate commissioner is a virtual dead heat between Nick Myers (17%), Kevin Thompson (15%) and Kim Owens (14%). Another 11% of likely GOP primary voters prefer some other candidate for corporate commissioner, while 44% are undecided.

The impact of Trump’s endorsement is clearest in the gubernatorial primary, where a majority (51%) of those who voted for Trump in 2020 are supporting Lake. She is supported by 46% of women voters and 40% of men, while Robson gets more support from men (37%) than women (30%).

In the Senate primary, Masters gets 35% support from those who voted for Trump in 2020, and has much stronger support from men (36%) than women voters (26%).

The survey found that 75% of likely Republican primary voters Strongly Disapprove of Joe Biden’s job performance as president, and only 16% even somewhat approve of Biden’s performance. Both Lake and Masters get their highest level of support among voters who Strongly Disapprove of Biden’s performance.

Two-term Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, who is prevented by term limits from seeking the office again, gets 57% approval among likely GOP primary voters, including 16% who Strongly Approve of the job Ducey has been doing as governor. Voters who Strongly Approve of Ducey are most likely to support Robson for governor (53%) and Brnovich for senator (36%), while those who Strongly Disapprove of Ducey are most likely to support Trump-endorsed candidates for both offices, with 50% for Lake as governor and 36% for Masters as senator.

The 2020 midterm elections are now 102 days away, and Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

A special congressional committee has spent weeks holding televised hearings about the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, but with apparently little effect on public opinion.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as Platinum Members.

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