Trump Change: Trump’s Chances Up Again

Has Donald Trump's tough response to the massacres in Paris helped him regain some lost ground?

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly Trump Change survey finds that 63% of Likely Republican Voters believe Trump is likely to be their party’s nominee next year, up from 59% last week and more in line with recent surveying. This includes 24% who think Trump is Very Likely to win the GOP race, up from 19% last week but still down from 30% three weeks ago. Thirty-four percent (34%) of GOP voters say Trump is unlikely to win the nomination, but just nine percent (9%) consider it Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Overall belief among Republican voters that the billionaire developer is likely to win the nomination spiked to a high of 74% in late October but has generally run in the mid-50s for most weeks since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly survey in mid-August. 

Among all likely voters, 51% think Trump is the likely Republican nominee, while 43% disagree. This includes 20% who say it’s Very Likely and 15% who feel it’s Not At All Likely. This marks a slight improvement over recent surveys.

Following the attacks in Paris by radical Islamic terrorists, Trump characterized President Obama's decision to let 10,000 Syrian refugees into the United States next year as the “ultimate Trojan horse”, referring to the potential for terrorists to enter the country with them. Most voters share Trump's national security concerns and oppose allowing those refugees to come here. 

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on November 17-18, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As long as the GOP race remains competitive, Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking Trump’s surprisingly successful run for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

The outsiders – Trump and Dr. Ben Carson - are still leading the pack in Rasmussen Reports’ most recent look at the Republican presidential primary race following last week's debate.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters not affiliated with either major political party think it’s likely Trump will win the nomination, including 20% who say that’s Very Likely. Most Democrats still think Trump is unlikely to go all the way.

Men and voters under 40 give Trump a better chance than women and older voters do.

Most whites (55%) consider a Trump nomination likely, while most blacks (61%) disagree. Other minority voters are more evenly divided.

Democratic voters are more convinced than they have been in months that Hillary Clinton will represent their party in next year’s presidential election. But Clinton has a problem among younger voters in her party.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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