Trump Change: Trump Nomination Seen As Less Inevitable

Is Donald Trump starting to look less like a sure thing in the race for the Republican presidential nomination?

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly Trump Change survey finds that 59% of Likely Republican Voters believe Trump is likely to be their party’s nominee next year, down from 64% last week but consistent with recent surveying. For the second week in a row, however, that includes just 19% who think Trump is Very Likely to win the GOP race, down from 30% two weeks ago.

Overall belief among Republican voters that the billionaire developer is likely to win the nomination spiked to a high of 74% in late October but has generally run in the mid-50s for most weeks since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly survey in mid-August.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of GOP voters say Trump is unlikely to win the nomination, with 13% who consider it Not At All Likely. These findings have changed little for several weeks now. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The outsiders – Trump and Dr. Ben Carson - are still leading the pack in Rasmussen Reports’ latest look at the Republican presidential primary race following Tuesday night’s debate. 

Among all likely voters, 49% think Trump is the likely Republican nominee, while 46% disagree. This includes 15% who say it’s Very Likely and 17% who feel it’s Not At All Likely. This, too, is in line with recent surveys.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on November 11-12, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As long as the GOP race remains competitive, Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking Trump’s surprisingly successful run for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

This week’s debate highlighted a strong military difference of opinion among the GOP candidates.

The majority of Democrats still consider a Trump nomination unlikely. Voters not affiliated with either major party by a 52% to 42% margin disagree and think Trump is likely to be the GOP’s standard-bearer.

Voters under 40 are more confident that Trump will go all the way than their elders are.

Just over half (51%) of whites believe Trump is likely to be the nominee, compared to 38% of blacks and 48% other minority voters.

The stronger the voter disapproves of President Obama’s job performance, the more likely he or she is to feel that Trump will ultimately be the Republican nominee.

Only 56% of all Republicans think their party has a plan for the future. 

Democrats hold their second debate tomorrow night, and Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on that race early next week. But front-runner Hillary Clinton is expected to emerge unscathed. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.