Trump Change

Rasmussen Reports’ final weekly Trump Change survey finds perceptions among Republicans and all voters that Donald Trump is the likely GOP presidential nominee at all time highs. The survey was begun before Ted Cruz and John Kasich quit the race.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Likely Republican Voters now believe Trump is likely to win their party’s nomination, with 78% who say it’s Very Likely. That’s up from previous highs of 89% and 67% respectively a week ago. Three weeks ago, belief among Republicans that Trump’s nomination was Very Likely was at only 38%, but his fortunes reversed dramatically following his big win in the New York primary.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of all likely voters agree that Trump is the likely Republican nominee, with 64% who say it’s Very Likely. This is up from 80% and 55% respectively last week and also represents new highs for both findings. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Rasmussen Reports began the Trump Change survey last August when the billionaire businessman’s unlikely candidacy began to catch fire. At that time, 25% of Republicans – and 17% of all voters – said he was Very Likely to be the nominee. When Trump jumped into the race two months earlier, just nine percent (9%) of GOP voters said he was Very Likely to win their nomination.

Now only five percent (5%) of Republicans and 14% of all voters say Trump is not very or Not At All Likely to be the Republicans’ presidential candidate.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on May 3-4, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump has a slight 41% to 39% edge over Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup. The candidates are even at 38% apiece when we give voters the option of staying home. 

Men and those 40 and over remain more confident in Trump’s nomination than women and younger voters do.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of whites think Trump is Very Likely to be the GOP nominee, compared to 40% of blacks and 51% of other minority voters.

Only 52% of Democrats say even now that Trump is Very Likely to capture the nomination, a view shared by 63% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Feelings about Trump have long been mirrored in voters’ perceptions of his likely success. Only 53% of those who Strongly Approve of the job President Obama is doing, for example, believe Trump is Very Likely to be nominated by the GOP. Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of Obama’s job performance, 80% think Trump is Very Likely to win the nomination.

Most Republicans welcome Cruz and Kasich dropping out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination. 

Democrats strongly believe that Clinton will be their presidential nominee. 

Right now, however, as other candidates consider whether to fall in line behind their party’s presumptive standard-bearer, it’s a curse more than a blessing to endorse either Clinton or Trump.

Voters remain lukewarm about Obama's national security policies and expect more of the same if Clinton moves back into the White House next January. Trump, if elected, will definitely change things, voters say, but not necessarily for the best. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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