Republicans Lead By 2 on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 46 days away, and Republicans have a two-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead is up one point from last week, when they led 43% to 42%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed significantly since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In September 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a three-point advantage (46% to 43%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 18-22, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 85% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 35% would vote Republican and 33% would vote Democrat, while 11% would vote for some other candidate and 21% are undecided.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of whites, 22% of Black voters and 42% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Black voters, 39% of whites and 41% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed slightly in the latest findings, with men (48%) now seven points more likely than women voters (41%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was eight points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 10-point margin, 46% to 36%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 48% to 40%, and the GOP lead is eight points – 50% to 42% – among voters 65 and older.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats do best among voters with annual incomes over $200,000, while Republicans have their largest advantage – 48% to 38% – among those earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.

Government employees favor Democrats 41-40%, while private sector workers slightly favor Republicans. Among retirees, the GOP leads 49% to 42%.

With the midterm elections less than seven weeks away, more Republicans than Democrats say they’re very excited to vote this fall.

Most voters believe national security will be an important issue in November, and are more likely to view the war in Ukraine as harmful to U.S. interests.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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