GOP Lead Down to One Point on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 53 days away, and Republicans have a one-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another 10% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead is down three points from last week, when they led 46% to 42%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed significantly since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In September 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a five-point advantage (47% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 11-15, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 85% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 34% would vote Republican and 31% would vote Democrat, while 13% would vote for some other candidate and 22% are undecided.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of whites, 23% of Black voters and 38% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Black voters, 39% of whites and 41% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (47%) now eight points more likely than women voters (39%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was two points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 12-point margin, 46% to 34%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 46% to 40%, and the GOP lead is nine points – 50% to 41% – among voters 65 and older.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats do best among voters with annual incomes between $100,000 and $200,000, while Republicans have their largest advantage – 51% to 42% – among those earning more than $200,000 a year.

Government employees favor Democrats by an 11-point margin, 46% to 35%, while private sector workers slightly favor Republicans. Among retirees, the GOP leads 50% to 41%.

Most voters approve of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s program to bus illegal immigrants from his border state to “sanctuary cities” like Chicago, New York and Washington, D.C.

Although gasoline prices have fallen from their record-breaking peak, a majority of voters are still concerned about fuel costs and expect the issue to matter in November.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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