GOP Congressional Lead Now at 7 Points

The 2022 midterm elections are now 25 days away, and Republicans have a seven-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 47% to 43%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.  

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In October 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats and Republicans were tied at 45% each in the generic ballot question. The margin was still a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 9-13, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The expanded Republican lead is due mainly to a 16-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, while nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and 15% are undecided.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 27% of black voters and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of black voters, 38% of whites and 42% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (53%) now 10 points more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was two points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 12-point margin, 47% to 35%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 52% to 39%, and the GOP lead is 18 points – 56% to 38% – among voters 65 and older.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats lead by 12 points, 51% to 39%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000, while Republicans have a 12-point advantage among those earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.

Republicans now hold strong majorities among both government employees and retirees, while private sector workers are almost evenly divided, with 44% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans.

Despite controversies over other issues, the economy remains the top concern for voters just weeks ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections.

A year after school controversies helped Republicans win big in Virginia, education remains an important issue for most voters.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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