Republicans Expand Congressional Lead to 4 Points

The 2022 midterm elections are now 32 days away, and Republicans have a four-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 45% to 44%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed significantly since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In October 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a five-point advantage (47% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 2-6, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The expanded Republican lead is due to both greater partisan intensity and a seven-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 83% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41% would vote Republican and 37% would vote Democrat, while seven percent (7%) would vote for some other candidate and 17% are undecided.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 19% of Black voters and 40% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Black voters, 39% of whites and 46% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed in the latest findings, with men (48%) now just two points more likely than women voters (46%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was six points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 19-point margin, 51% to 32%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 52% to 39%, and the GOP lead is 16 points – 56% to 40% – among voters 65 and older.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats have a 51% majority among voters with annual incomes over $100,000, while Republicans have their largest advantage – 50% to 41% – among those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year.

Democrats now lead among both government employees and private sector workers, while among retirees, the GOP leads 56% to 37%.

The assumption that Hispanic voters embrace a policy of unrestricted immigration is false, as is the belief that Latinos uncritically support the Democratic Party.

Most voters believe violent crime is getting worse and expect the issue to be important in next month’s midterm elections.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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