GOP Still Leads on Generic Congressional Ballot

With less than eight months to go before election day, Republicans have a six-point lead in their battle to maintain their narrow House majority.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP’s advantage has narrowed slightly since January, when they led by nine points – 49% to 40% – over Democrats. 

Two years ago, in March 2022, Republicans had an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. In the final poll before Election Day 2022, Republicans held a five-point lead, and scored a net gain of nine seats to capture a 222-213 House majority. LINK TO GOP Leads by 5 Points on Final Generic Congressional Ballot.

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The survey of 1,118 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on March 10-12, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The GOP’s lead on the generic ballot is due mainly to their 15-point advantage among independents. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate if the election were held today, while 80% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44% would vote Republican and 29% would vote Democrat, while 10% say they’d vote for some other candidate and 17% are undecided.

A substantial “gender gap” has developed in the generic ballot, with men favoring Republicans by a 15-point margin – 51% to 36% – while women voters prefer Democrats by a slender margin, 46% to 43%. In January, 49% of both men and women voters preferred Republican candidates for Congress.

There much less variation between age groups, with under-40 voters preferring GOP candidates by a six-point margin (47% to 41%), those ages 40-64 favor Republicans by a five-point margin (45% to 40%), and voters 65 and older favor the GOP by six points, 50% to 44%.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of whites, 28% of black voters and 51% of other minorities favor Republicans, while 40% of whites, 53% of black voters and 37% of other minorities would vote Democrat if the election were held today.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democrats, while 74% of conservatives prefer  Republican candidates for Congress. Among moderate voters, 42% favor Democrats and 37% would vote GOP.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters in the highest income bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – favor Democrats by a 16-point margin (51% to 35%), while Republicans lead by 24 points, 57% to 33%, among those with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000.

President Joe Biden has expressed regret for calling a Venezuela-born murder suspect “illegal,” but most voters think that’s what such foreign law-breakers should be called.

By a narrow margin, more voters think former President Donald Trump cares about people like them than say the same of President Joe Biden.

Additional information LINK from this survey and a full demographic breakdown LINK are available to Platinum Members only.

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