GOP Leads by 5 Points on Final Generic Congressional Ballot

Four days ahead of Election Day, Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another six percent (6%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead has decreased two points from last week, when they led 49% to 42%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.

Rasmussen Reports has updated the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern since May.

In 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, the margin on the generic congressional ballot was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 30-November 3, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead is due mainly to a 13-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 84% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 33% would vote Democrat, while eight percent (8%) would vote for some other candidate and 13% are undecided.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 33% of Black voters and 44% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Black voters, 41% of whites and 40% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened slightly in the latest findings, with men (52%) five points more likely than women voters (45%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was three points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 12-point margin, 48% to 36%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 54% to 40%, and the GOP lead is 10 points – 53% to 43% – among voters 65 and older.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats lead by 12 points, 52% to 40%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000, while Republicans have an 15-point advantage, 53% to 38%, among those earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.

Republicans now have their strongest advantage – 56% to 39% – among retirees, and also lead by five points (48% to 43%) among private sector workers, while government employees favor Democrats, 47% to 40%.

Nearly half of voters say inflation and the economy are the most important issues for them in this year’s congressional midterms.

More than half of voters think a Republican victory in next week’s midterms will probably mean impeachment for President Joe Biden.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.