Republican Congressional Lead Tightens

The 2022 midterm elections are now 144 days away, and Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead has shrunk by four points since last week, when they led 48%-39%.The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In June 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a four-point advantage (45% to 41%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 12-16, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is mainly due to a 14-point advantage among independents. Partisan intensity is nearly equal, as 87% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 84% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 42% would vote Republican and 28% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 21% of black voters and 44% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-two percent (62%) of black voters, 37% of whites and 40% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (50%) now eight points more likely than women voters (42%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was three points last weeko.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 49% to 35%, but 50% of voters ages 40-64 and 55% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 50% to 40% – among voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year. Democrats lead 48% to 38% among those with annual incomes over $200,000.

The Republican advantage is strongest among entrepreneurs, who favor the GOP by a 15-point margin, while Democrats now lead by 11 points among government employees.

While a majority of voters believe the congressional investigation of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot is important, most will watch little if any of the committee’s televised hearings.

Nearly half of voters believe President Joe Biden and Major League Baseball should apologize to Georgia after last year’s controversy over the state’s new election law.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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