Republicans Expand Congressional Lead

The 2022 midterm elections are now 158 days away, and Republicans have an eight-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Republicans have gained two points since last week, when they led 47%-41%. The Generic Congressional Ballot is now the closest it’s been all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In June 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a four-point advantage (44% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 29-June 2, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and an 15-point advantage among independents. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 81% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 43% would vote Republican and 28% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 18% are undecided.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 27% of Black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Black voters, 36% of whites and 39% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed slightly in the latest findings, with men (51%) now six points more likely than women voters (45%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was nine points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 46% to 35%, but 54% of voters ages 40-64 and 53% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 52% to 34% – among voters earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year. Democrats has a slight lead (47%-45%) among those with annual incomes between $100,000 and $200,000.

The Republican advantage is strongest among retirees, who favor the GOP by a 17-point margin.

Most voters are concerned about “hate speech” on the Internet, but are divided about whether it can be suppressed without violating First Amendment free speech protections.

Mental health problems are seen as a leading factor in mass shootings by young men, and voters overwhelmingly support so-called “red flag laws” to help prevent such tragedies.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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