Republicans Lead 48%-39% on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 327 days away, and Republicans maintain a strong lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Democrats have narrowed the gap in the generic congressional ballot since November, when the GOP led by an unprecedented 13-point margin.

In January 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held an eight-point advantage (45% to 37%) in the generic ballot question. That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on December 8-9 and 12-14, 2021 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The nine-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is still larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents. While 87% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s candidate, only 80% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrats, while nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of whites, 30% of black voters and 41% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of black voters, 35% of whites and 41% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

Slightly more women voters than men favor Republican control of Congress.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 46% to 36%, but majorities of older voters – 53% of those ages 40-64 and 56% of those 65 and older – would vote Republican.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 50% to 35% – among voters earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year. Democrats lead by a 15-point margin, 54% to 39%, among voters with annual incomes of $200,000 or more.

The Republican advantage is smaller among voters who attended college, and Democrats have a substantial edge – 51% to 39% – among those with postgraduate degrees.

Entrepreneurs and retirees strongly favor the GOP, and Republicans have a nine-point lead among private sector workers, while government employees slightly favor Democrats.

An overwhelming majority of voters are increasingly concerned about violent crime and, by a wide margin, they trust Republicans more than Democrats to deal with the problem.

Support for voter ID laws to prevent cheating in elections remains high, and most Republican voters remain unconvinced that President Joe Biden was elected fairly.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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