GOP Widens Lead on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 172 days away, and Republicans have a nine-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Republicans have added one point to their congressional advantage since April, when they led 47%-39%.

In May 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a one-point advantage (43% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, and the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 15-19, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The nine-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and an 18-point advantage among independents. While 88% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 80% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 18% are undecided.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 23% of black voters and 46% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty percent (60%) of black voters, 36% of whites and 38% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” is apparent in the latest findings, with men (52%) seven points more likely than women voters (45%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 44% to 36%, but 54% of voters 40 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 50% to 40% – among voters earning between $100,000 and $200,000 a year.

The Republican advantage is strongest among entrepreneurs, who favor the GOP by a 22-point margin, 54%-32%, over Democrats.

More voters describe themselves as pro-choice than pro-life, but a significant majority support state laws that limit how late in a pregnancy an abortion can be performed.

Climate change isn’t a very important issue for most voters, but Democrats are significantly more concerned about the problem.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 15-19, 2022  by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

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