GOP Lead Narrows to 8 Points on Congressional Ballot

The 2020 midterm elections are now 207 days away, and Republicans have an 8-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Republicans have lost three points of their congressional advantage since March, when they led 50%-39%.

In April 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a five-point advantage (45% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on March 13-17, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The eight-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is as large as Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 12-point advantage among independents. While 88% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 78% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 40% would vote Republican and 28% would vote Democrat, while 13% would vote for some other candidate and 19% are undecided.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of whites, 19% of black voters and 41% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-three percent (63%) of black voters, 34% of whites and 40% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” is wider in the latest findings, with men (51%) eight points more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 45% to 34%, but 52% of voters ages 40-64 and 55% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 51% to 35% – among voters earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, while Democrats lead 58%-37% among voters with annual incomes of $200,000 or more.

The Republican advantage is strongest among retirees, who favor the GOP by a 23-point margin, 57%-34%, over Democrats.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is very popular with Republican voters, but if former President Donald Trump seeks the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, most expect Trump would beat DeSantis.

Nothing Congress has done since last fall has improved their standing in the eyes of independent voters.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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