Election 2024: Trump Leads in Five of Six Battlegrounds

In five of the six states considered “battlegrounds” in this year’s presidential election, former President Donald Trump now leads President Joe Biden.

A new telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute finds that in a two-way contest between Trump and Biden, Trump leads in all but one – Michigan – where the race is now tied at 46% for each candidate. This survey was taken before last weekend’s assassination attempt against Trump at a Pennsylvania rally. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Biden won all six of these battleground states in 2020. In the two-way matchup with Biden, Trump currently enjoys his widest lead, 50% to 41%, in Arizona. Trump leads by five points over Biden in both Georgia (48% to 43%) and Nevada (50% to 45%), is three points ahead in Pennsylvania (47% to 44%).and leads by two points in Wisconsin (48% to 46%).

Farther down the ballot, while Democrats lead in the five U.S. Senate races in these battleground states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), all of those contests are within a three-point margin. And, on the so-called “generic ballot” for U.S. House seats, Republicans lead in four states, while Democrats lead by a two-point margin in Michigan, and Nevada is tied.

“As this poll from the crucial swing states shows, things could not be looking better for the Trump campaign,” said Chris Talgo, editorial director for the Heartland Institute. 

“Without a doubt, swing state voters were horrified watching President Biden’s debate performance in late June. Such is why the tables have turned so quickly. As of now, former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead across the swing states while his favorability rating has reached 50%. Republicans also hold solid leads in down ballot races, suggesting that 2024 could be a landslide victory for the GOP.”

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The survey of 5,605 Likely Voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was conducted on July 5-12, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute. The survey included 1,101 Likely Voters  in Arizona, 1,015 in Georgia, 1,025 in Michigan, 761 in Nevada, 1,041 in Pennsylvania and 1,020 in Wisconsin. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

When third-party presidential candidates are included, Trump leads by a wider margin against Biden in three states, maintains the same lead in two others, and goes from a tie with Biden to leading by one point in Michigan. In a six-way matchup including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, former Harvard Professor Cornell West and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Trump leads Biden by eight points in Nevada, four points in Pennsylvania, and three points in Wisconsin. Kennedy has his best showing in Georgia, where he gets 10% of the vote.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/Heartland Institute survey of battleground state voters:

– In a two-way matchup, 52% of whites, 28% of black voters, and 54% of Hispanics and other minorities would vote for Trump, while 41% of whites, 64% of black voters, 37% of Hispanics and 34% of other minorities would vote for Biden. 

– In the two-way matchup, Biden and Trump are now tied among under-40 battleground state voters, who went decisively for Biden four years ago. Trump leads by eight points among those ages 40-64 and by five points among voters 65 and older.

– There is a significant “gender gap” among battleground state voters, with men favoring Trump by an 11-point margin in the two-way matchup, while women voters split evenly between Trump and Biden.

– In every battleground state with a U.S. Senate race, the Democratic Senate candidate outperforms Biden against the GOP opposition. For example, in Arizona, where Trump leads Biden by nine points, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has a three-point lead, with 44% to 41% for Republican Kari Lake, in the contest for the Senate seat being vacated by the retirement of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

Less than four months before Election Day, former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden nationwide. 

Nearly half of American voters would support laws to protect U.S. business from a European Union (EU) policy that imposes strict environmental, climate, and social justice rules on companies. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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