Election 2024: Trump 49%, Harris 47% in Nevada

Former President Donald Trump has a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala in the battleground state of Nevada.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely Nevada voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another percent (2%) are still undecided. In September, Trump led by one point – 49% to Harris’s 48% – in Nevada. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In the battle to control the U.S. Senate, Democrat Jacky Rosen leads Republican challenger Sam Brown by a three-point margin, 47% to 44%. In September, Rosen had a 10-point lead, with 50% to Brown’s 40%.

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The survey of 748 Nevada Likely Voters was conducted on October 9-14, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

“It turns out that things can change a lot in three weeks,” said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg, noting the gains both by Trump and Brown since the previous survey.

“It turns out that voters who increasingly distrust the government and are dismayed by the quality of their lives want to ‘turn the page’ … away from Democrats and toward Trump.”

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Nevada voters say the economy is the most important issue in this year’s election, followed by border security (19%) and abortion (15%). However, when asked which issue the next president should address first, illegal immigration is in the top spot (31%), with rising prices (29%), abortion rights (20%) and “protecting our democracy” (18%) following behind.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Nevada voters:

– The “gender gap” is a more significant factor in the Senate contest than in the presidential race. Men favor Trump by a six-point margin – 51% to Harris’s 45% – while women voters in Nevada favor Harris by a one-point margin, 48% to Trump’s 47%. In the Senate race, men favor Brown by a two-point margin – 47% to Rosen’s 45% – while women voters favor Rosen by a seven-point margin, 49% to Brown’s 42%.

– Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 32% of black voters and 50% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 46% of whites, 63% of black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have a 10-point advantage on the so-called “generic ballot” question in Nevada, where 56% would vote for Republicans and 46% would vote for Democrats.

– Thirty-three percent (33%) of Nevada voters say they’re better off than they were four years ago, but a majority (59%) say they’re not better off. Among voters who aren’t better off than they were four years ago, 71% would vote for Trump.

– A majority of voters age 50 and older support Trump, while Harris leads significantly among voters ages under 40.

– Seventy percent (70%) of Nevada voters are concerned that the outcome of the presidential election will be affected by cheating, including 42% who are Very Concerned that cheating could affect the election.

By nearly a 2-to-1 margin, voters say a candidate’s competence matters more than caring when it comes to this year’s presidential election.

In the battle to control the U.S. Senate, Republican challenger Bernie Moreno has a slight lead over Ohio’s incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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