Daily Swing State Tracking Poll

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

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In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%.  Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

Romney has now led for 12 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Nationally, Romney still holds a modest lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state that put George W. Bush over the top. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year. 

(Swing State Job Approval Data Below Table)

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The president’s Job Approval in the swing states is currently at 48%. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. These figures include 29% who Strongly Approve and 42% who Strongly Disapprove.

These results are derived from tracking poll data collected for the seven days ending October 28, 2012. The sample includes approximately 1,300 Likely Voters, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports issues our daily Swing State Tracking Poll to supplement, not replace, individual state polling. Romney leads by two in New Hampshire, Florida  and Virginia. He’s up four in Colorado and six in North Carolina. Obama leads by two in Nevada, five in Pennsylvania  and seven in Michigan.  The candidates are tied in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin.  See the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

New data out of Ohio will be released this morning.

(More data below table)

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of swing state voters believe the nation is generally heading in the right direction. Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe it has gotten off on the wrong track.

The Key Three States are Virginia, Ohio and Florida. With 60 Electoral College votes, these three states are currently Toss-Ups. It is virtually impossible for Romney to win the White House without winning at least two of these three states. If he wins all three, he is likely to win the election. The president can keep his job if he wins two of these three states.