Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party continues to hold a five-point lead over Republicans in the battle to control the House of Representatives. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 42% would vote for the Republican. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while six percent (6%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The net advantage for Democrats has not changed since two weeks ago, when they led 41% to 36%. The position for Republicans is now a net eight points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.

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The survey of 1,905 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 3 and 6-9, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Democrats’ lead is due both to greater partisan intensity and a five-point margin among independents. Seventy-seven percent (88%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 85% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 40% would vote for Democrats and 35% for Republicans, while 10% say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 15% are undecided.

The “gender gap” is a net six points. Women voters prefer Democrats by a 48% to 40% margin, while among men, 46% favor Democrats and 44% would vote Republican if the elections for Congress were held today.

Forty-four percent (44%) of whites, 68% of black voters, 45% of Hispanics and 38% of other minorities would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 46% of whites, 23% of black voters, 40% of Hispanics and 47% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats lead by a 14-point margin, 51% to 37%, among voters in their 40s, but the two parties are tied among those ages 50 to 64.

Democrats lead by a nine-point margin among voters earning less than $50,000 a year, while Republicans have a one-point lead among those with annual incomes between $50,000 and $100,000.

A majority of college-educated voters favor the Democratic congressional candidate.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Democrats, while 81% of Donald Trump voters would vote for Republican congressional candidates.

Democrat Troy Jackson has a one-point lead over Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking her sixth term in the Senate. 

Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas has opened an 11-point lead over former Republican Sen. John Sununu in the race to fill the New Hampshire Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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