Generic Congressional Ballot

Midterm Forecast: Democrats 48%, Republicans 44%

The Democratic Party’s lead over Republicans has narrowed to four points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 44% would vote for the Republican. Two percent (2%) say they would vote for some other candidate and another five percent (5%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The net advantage for Democrats has decreased by one point since last week, when they led by three points, 47% to 44%. 

The position for Republicans is now a net seven points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority. 

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The survey of 1,789 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 8 and 11-14, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 92% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% would vote for Republicans and 40% for Democrats, while six percent (6%) would vote third-party and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of all Likely Voters say they are excited about voting in this year’s elections for Congress, including 52% who are Very Excited. More Democrats (58%) than Republicans (53%) or unaffiliated voters (44%) describe themselves as Very Excited about the midterm elections.

The “gender gap” is now a net 19 points. Women voters prefer Democrats by a 53% to 40% margin, while men favor Republicans, 50% to 44%.

Forty-four percent (44%) of whites, 78% of black voters, 49% of Hispanics and 28% of other minorities would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 49% of whites, 14% of black voters, 47% of Hispanics and 57% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats hold a 20-point lead, 56% to 36%, among voters ages 50 to 64. The only age category in which Republicans lead is those 65 and older. However, voters 65 and older are most likely to say they are Very Excited about voting in this year’s elections for Congress.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of self-identified Very Liberal voters favor Democrats, while 86% of Very Conservative voters would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, 59% would vote for Democrats and 31% support Republicans. Very Conservative voters are most likely to  describe themselves as Very Excited about the midterm elections.

Ninety-two percent (92%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 85% of Donald Trump voters would vote Republican.

A majority of voters believe non-citizens are illegally registered to vote in their state, and consider it likely this could have an impact on this year’s midterm elections.

Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed still holds a narrow lead over former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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