Democrats Still Believe Russia Changed 2016 Election

Fears of Russian interference in U.S. politics remain widespread, and Democratic voters overwhelmingly agree with Hillary Clinton that Russia is to blame for her defeat in 2016.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it is likely that Russian interference changed the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, including 26% who say it’s Very Likely. Forty-six percent (46%) don’t think it’s likely Russian interference changed the 2016 election, including 32% who say it is Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In a July 2020 interview with Joy Reid on MSNBC, Clinton said, “It's very clear that Russia succeeded. They believe that they were able to influence the minds and even votes of Americans, so why would they stop?” Seventy-two percent (72%) of Democrats believe it’s likely the 2016 election outcome was changed by Russian interference, but that opinion is shared by only 30% of Republicans and 39% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

Last week, CNN reported that U.S. intelligence sources believe Russian President Vladimir Putin may be “dialing up his attempts to interfere with American elections.” Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters think it’s likely Russia will try to interfere in this year’s congressional midterm elections, including 38% who say such interference is Very Likely. Thirty-four percent (34%) don’t believe Russian interference in the midterm elections is likely, including 16% who say it is Not At All Likely.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on April 14 and 17, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

A majority (53%) of Democrats believe it is Very Likely that Russia will try to interfere in the midterm elections, an opinion shared by 33% of Republicans and 27% of unaffiliated voters. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Republicans, nine percent (9%) of Democrats and 17% of unaffiliated voters think Russian interference in the congressional midterm elections is Not At All Likely.

A majority (57%) of voters under 40 think it is at least somewhat likely that Russian interference changed the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, an opinion shared by 45% of voters 40-64 and 38% of those 65 and older. Under-40 voters are also more likely than their elders to believe Russia will try to interfere in this year’s midterm elections.

Forty-five percent (45%) of whites, 60% of black voters and 43% of other minorities believe it’s at least somewhat likely the 2016 election was changed by Russian interference. Majorities of every racial category – 60% of whites, 61% of black voters and 54% of other minorities – think it is at least somewhat likely Russia will try to interfere in the congressional midterm elections.

Voters with annual incomes above $200,000 are most likely to think Russian interference changed the presidential election outcome in 2016, while those with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 are most skeptical toward claims of Russian interference in the 2016 election. And while 56% of voters with incomes above $200,000 say it is Very Likely that Russia will try to interfere in this year’s congressional elections, less than 40% of those with incomes below $100,000 share that opinion.

More government employees (59%) than private sector workers (49%) believe it’s at least somewhat likely Russian interference changed the 2016 election outcome, and only 38% of retirees share that belief.

President Joe Biden’s strongest supporters are most certain that Russian interference changed the 2016 election, and to fear future interference. Among voters who Strongly Approve of Biden’s job performance as president, 86% believe it’s at least somewhat likely Russian interference changed the outcome of the 2016 presidential election and 75% think it is Very Likely that Russia will try to interfere in this year’s congressional midterm elections. By contrast, among voters who Strongly Disapprove of Biden’s performance, only 18% think the 2016 election was changed by Russian interference, and just 20% say Russian interference in this year’s midterms is Very Likely.

At a time when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlights national security issues, most voters believe America’s national security is getting worse and few give President Biden high marks for his handling of the issue.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is very popular with Republican voters, but if former President Donald Trump seeks the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, most expect Trump would beat DeSantis.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as Platinum Members.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.