Democrats Lead in Pennsylvania Governor, Senate Races

Barely two weeks before Election Day, Democrats lead in the closely watched midterm races for governor and U.S. Senator in Pennsylvania. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that, if the Senate election were held today, 45% of Pennsylvania Likely Voters would vote for the Democrat, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, while 43% would vote for the Republican, Dr. Mehmet Oz. Six percent (6%) say they’d vote for some other candidate, while another six percent (6%) are undecided. The Pennsylvania race, to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, is seen as a key pickup opportunity for Democrats in this year’s midterms. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, 43% would vote for the Democrat if the election were held today, state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, while 40% would vote for Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano. Six percent (6%) would vote for some other candidate and another 10% are undecided.

If the elections for Congress were held today, 45% of Pennsylvania Likely Voters would vote for the Republican candidate and 44% would vote for the Democratic candidate.

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The survey of 972 Pennsylvania Likely Voters was conducted on October 19-20, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Inflation is easily the most important issue for Pennsylvania voters. Eighty-eight percent (88%) say the issue of inflation will be important in this year’s congressional elections, including 66% who say inflation will be a Very Important issue. Among those who plan to vote Republican in the congressional midterms, 94% say inflation is a Very Important issue, compared to 40% of Pennsylvania voters who plan to vote for Democrats. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Pennsylvania voters say energy policy will be an important issue in the congressional midterms, 82% say violent crime  will be important, and 80% say gas prices will be important. Seventy-three percent (73%) say illegal immigration, will be an important issue, 69% say fentanyl poisoing will be an important and 67% say abortion will be important in this year's midterms.

While 74% of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania say abortion will be a Very Important issue in the congressional midterm elections, that view is shared by only 35% of Republicans and 44% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports Pennsylvania survey:

– Eighty percent (80%) of Democrats would vote for Fetterman in the Senate race, while 76% of Republicans would vote for Oz. Among unaffiliated voters, Oz leads narrowly, 35% to 34% for Fetterman.

– Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democrats would vote for Shapiro in  the gubernatorial contest, while 69% of Republicans would vote for Mastriano. Among unaffiliated voters, Mastriano has a three-point lead, 33% to 30% for Shapiro.

– Fetterman has a much larger advantage among Black voters in the Senate race than Shapiro does in the gubernatorial contest.

– While younger voters are more favorable to Fetterman in the Senate race, Shapiro has a greater advantage among older voters in the gubernatorial contest.

– President Joe Biden’s approval rating is underwater in Pennsylvania. Forty-four percent (44%) of Pennsylvania voters approve of Biden’s job performance as president, including 24% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, including 46% who Strongly Disapprove.

– Significantly more women voters (58%) than men (45%) say abortion will be a Very Important issue in this year’s congressional election. However, more women rate inflation (66%) and gas prices (60%) as Very Important issues.

– Forty-five percent (45%) believe it is likely that widespread cheating in Pennsylvania will affect the outcome of this year’s congressional elections, including 20% who think it’s Very Likely. More Republicans (65%) than Democrats (25%) or unaffiliated voters (46%) think cheating is likely to affect the midterms.

While most voters will wait until Election Day to cast their ballot, half of Democrats say they’ll vote early this year.

With the midterm elections barely two weeks away, most voters are still worried about high gasoline prices and give President Biden low marks for his energy policy.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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