Battleground 2022: Republicans Lead in Six Key States

With less than a month remaining until the midterm elections, President Joe Biden’s approval rating is sagging in six key states where Republicans lead in the battle for control of Congress.

Results compiled by Rasmussen Reports from more than six weeks of telephone and online surveys of Likely Voters find Republicans ahead on the generic congressional ballot in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In three of those states – Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania – Biden’s total approval is at 41%. His approval is 46% Michigan, and 43% in both Ohio and Wisconsin.

The generic ballot question – “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?” – is a crucial metric for the midterm elections. Rasmussen Reports has been asking this question nationally of Likely Voters for months, and the state-by-state results are collected from recent surveys:

– Arizona: Republicans lead Democrats by a three-point margin, 47%-44%, on the generic ballot question. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 21% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 46% who Strongly Disapprove. Sixty-seven percent (67%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 26% say it's headed in the right direction. (The survey of 577 Arizona Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. Click here to see the Arizona crosstabs.)

– Georgia: Republicans lead Democrats by an 11-point margin, 50%-39%, on the generic ballot question. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 18% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 46% who Strongly Disapprove. Sixty-five percent (65%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 30% say it's headed in the right direction. (The survey of 991 Georgia Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. Click here to see the Georgia crosstabs.)

– Michigan: Republicans lead Democrats by a four-point margin, 48%-44%, on the generic ballot question. Forty-six percent (46%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 27% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 44% who Strongly Disapprove. Sixty-one percent (61%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 33% say it's headed in the right direction. (The survey of 1,222 Michigan Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. Click here to see the Michigan crosstabs.)

– Ohio: Republicans lead Democrats by a six-point margin, 47%-41%, on the generic ballot question. Forty-three percent (43%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 21% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-five percent (55%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 45% who Strongly Disapprove. Sixty-seven percent (67%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 27% say it's headed in the right direction. (The survey of 962 Ohio Likely Voters was conducted August 23-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. Click here to see the Ohio crosstabs.)

– Pennsylvania: Republicans lead Democrats by a five-point margin, 48%-43%, on the generic ballot question. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 23% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 47% who Strongly Disapprove. Sixty-eight percent (68%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 26% say it's headed in the right direction. (The survey of 1,093 Pennsylvania Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. Click here to see the Pennsylvania crosstabs.)

– Wisconsin: Republicans lead Democrats by a four-point margin, 46%-42%, on the generic ballot question. Forty-three percent (43%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 22% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 46% who Strongly Disapprove. Sixty-six percent (66%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 28% say it's headed in the right direction. (The survey of 614 Wisconsin Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. Click here to see the Wisconsin crosstabs.)

Nationwide, Republicans have a seven-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

Despite controversies over other issues, the economy remains the top concern for voters just weeks ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections.

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The margin of sampling error is +/-3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.