Election 2018: Pennsylvania Governor

Democratic incumbent Tom Wolf is sitting comfortably in his bid for reelection in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race.

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of the race finds Wolf with the support of 52% of Likely Pennsylvania Voters to Republican Scott Wagner’s 40%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among the 87% who say they are definitely going to vote in the upcoming election, Wolf posts a 53% to 40% lead.

Both Wolf and Wagner, previously a Pennsylvania state senator, are well-known by voters in the state.

Wolf, governor of the Keystone State since 2015, is viewed favorably by 55% of Pennsylvania voters. Forty-one percent (41%) have an unfavorable impression of him. These findings include 29% who have a Very Favorable opinion of Wolf and 25% who view him Very Unfavorably.

Forty-four percent (44%) have a favorable impression of Wagner, including 20% who view him Very Favorably. Thirty-seven percent (37%) view Wagner unfavorably, with 22% who have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Pennsylvania voters approve of the job that Wolf is currently doing as governor, while 42% disapprove. This includes 23% who Strongly Approve and 21% who Strongly Disapprove.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on September 12-13, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In the state’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. also appears comfortably on his way to reelection.

Wagner has just 71% support among Pennsylvania Republicans. Wolf has the backing of 83% of the state’s Democrats and holds a seven-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

A majority of women (60%) prefer Wolf. Men, by a 49% to 44%, like Wagner.

Given eight major issues and asked which is the most important to their vote this fall, 20% of Pennsylvania voters say taxes and government spending, closely followed by the economy at 19%. For 16%, illegal immigration is the big issue, while 14% tap government ethics and corruption. Of less concern are social issues (9%), the environment (7%), education (5%) and school safety (3%). Four percent (4%) cite some other issue.

Wagner leads among voters who put the economy and illegal immigration first. Wolf has the advantage in all other categories.

Wolf agreed to participate in one debate with Wagner. It’s being held on October 1 and will be moderated by “Jeopardy!” host Alex Trebek. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Pennsylvania voters say debates are important in terms of how they will vote, including 36% who say it’s Very Important. Twenty percent (20%) say debates are not important when it comes to their vote, with five percent (5%) who say it’s Not at all Important.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Keystone State voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Only nine percent (9%) describe it as poor. Fifty-seven percent (57%) consider their own finances as good or excellent, while 14% view their personal finances as poor.

Democrats continue to lead on the Rasmussen Reports weekly Generic Congressional Ballot.

Thanks to our citizen sponsors, additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are open to the public.

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