Election 2016: Utah President

Utah appears to have moved safely into Republican Donald Trump’s column with less than a week to go until Election Day.

A new Heat Street/Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Utah Voters finds Trump with 42% support to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 31%. Republican-turned-Independent candidate Evan McMullin has faded to 21%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns three percent (3%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week, it was Trump 32%, McMullin 29%, Clinton 28%. The week before that, Trump held a negligible 30% lead over McMullin (29%) and Clinton (28%).

But as in other parts of the country, Utah Republicans appear to be coming home to Trump as his race with Clinton tightens following the announcement that the FBI has reopened its investigation of her mishandling of classified documents. GOP vice presidential nominee Mike Pence visited Utah last week, and popular Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz has announced publicly he is backing Trump after all.

A week ago, it was Trump 47%, McMullin 38% among GOP voters in Utah. The latest survey finds Trump ahead 63% to 27% among Republican voters. Utah hasn’t supported a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, but an upset win by McMullin, a former Republican congressional staffer who says he is the real conservative in the race, could cost Trump much needed electoral votes in a close national contest.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of all Utah voters thought Clinton would win the election in the previous survey. Now 51% feel that way. Thirty-four percent (34%) say Trump will win, while 15% are undecided. Republican voters in the state by a 49% to 34% margin now believe Trump will be the winner.

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Utah was conducted on October 29-31, 2016 by HeatStreet/Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump has taken a three-point lead in the latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch survey.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Utah Republicans now say their party should not endorse McMullin instead of Trump. That compares to 49% last week.

Ninety percent (90%) of Utah Democrats support Clinton, as do six percent (6%) of GOP voters. Among voters in the state not affiliated with either major political party, it’s Clinton 33%, Trump 29%, McMullin 24% and Johnson six percent (6%).

Trump has a sizable lead among men and leads by three among women. McMullin earns 21% support among women voters.

McMullin has a slight advantage among voters under 40. Their elders prefer Trump by double-digit margins.

Trump is viewed Very Favorably by 16% of all Utah voters and Very Unfavorably by 50%. Clinton does even worse: She has Very Favorables of 14% and Very Unfavorables of 62%.

Eighteen percent (18%) have a Very Favorable opinion of McMullin, 16% a Very Unfavorable one. For Johnson, Very Favorables are four percent (4%), Very Unfavorables 20%.

Among Republicans, though, Trump’s favorables and unfavorables aren’t much different than McMullin’s.

Incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, still has a 59% to 27% lead over Democrat Misty Snow, the first openly transgender major party candidate for the Senate. Independent candidate Bill Barron and Independent American Party candidate Stoney Fonua get three percent (3%) and two percent (2%) support respectively. Seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Lee was first elected to the Senate in 2010 with 62% of the vote.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters in Utah approve of the job President Obama is doing, with 25% who Strongly Approve. Sixty percent (60%) disapprove of the president’s job performance, including 45% who Strongly Disapprove. Obama continues to earn a far worse job approval rating in Utah than he gets nationally.

As the election nears, it seems voters once again – as they do every four years with rare exception – are abandoning the third-party candidates to vote for the Republican or Democratic nominee.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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