A Tale of Two Pollsters

The New York Times reports in their latest poll released late yesterday that Americans don’t care about Hillary Clinton’s e-mail and Clinton Foundation problems. They conclude that the former secretary of State and putative Democratic presidential nominee in 2016 has weathered the storm so far.

For Democrats, it’s always advantageous when pollsters turn to Americans in general or even registered voters rather than Likely Voters like those we routinely survey here at Rasmussen Reports. It’s true that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they intend to vote which helps explain why Democrats are always championing schemes like same-day voter registration, mail-in voting and the like to get their voters to the polls. But, historically, we’ve also found that polling likely voters gets us closer to the actual end result than surveying Americans as a whole.

Likely voters are also following the news much more closely, showing the same commitment to being informed that they have on Election Day. The wider pool of all Americans is thus far more likely to produce results like this one reported in the New York Times’ latest poll: 55% say they don’t know enough to answer whether foreign donations affected Mrs. Clinton’s actions while serving as secretary of State.

By contrast, Rasmussen Reports finds that when you survey Likely U.S. Voters:

-- 63% think it’s likely some actions Clinton took as secretary of State were influenced by donations made to the Clinton Foundation, including 42% who say it’s Very Likely.

-- 51% do not trust Clinton. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they do trust the former first lady, but another 13% are undecided. 

-- 52% now believe Clinton’s use of a private, non-government e-mail provider for issues at the highest levels of the U.S. government raises serious national security concerns, up slightly from 49% in early March.

-- 45% now say Clinton deliberately used the private e-mail account to hide things from government oversight. That’s a six-point increase from 39% two months ago.

The New York Times survey was based on 1,027 respondents and was conducted from April 30 through May 3.

The Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 27-28.

Rasmussen Reports found just a month ago that 57% of likely voters think Clinton is likely to be elected president next year, with 23% who say it’s Very Likely.

Our polling suggests, however, that it’s too soon to say Clinton has "weathered the storm."

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