Election Day is quickly approaching, just over six weeks away. Each day brings surprises, from another assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump to another "I grew up as a middle-class kid" from Vice President Kamala Harris.
Neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday's front page, has any proposals to cut the rapidly increasing national debt. Instead, both are proposing to hand out goodies to strategically positioned voters.
— We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We continue to view the race for the chamber as effectively a 50-50 proposition.
— The real playing field may be smaller than what we saw in the 2022 election cycle, if current outside spending is any indication.
— Beyond our rating changes, we have some observations about key races across the competitive map, including in Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Have you gotten a letter that says, "You may be entitled to compensation"?
If Democrats didn't believe they'd put former President Donald Trump in an assassin's crosshairs the first time, they have no excuse for pleading innocent now.
When I was in the polling business many years ago, our reports always started with the mood of the electorate, whether things were moving in the right direction or seriously off on the wrong track, then moved to two sections on character and issues.
— Swing state polls show an incredibly close race in our 7 Toss-up presidential states right now.
— Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.
— If polls are understating Donald Trump again, he of course is in a great position to win given how competitive he already is in the core swing states. But there are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.
In 1982 the federal budget deficit rose above $100 billion for the first time (those were the good old days!), and then-President Ronald Reagan agreed to an infamous budget deal with then-House Speaker Tip O'Neill. Democrats would agree to $3 of spending cuts for every $1 of tax increases. Reagan foolishly agreed to the deal. The taxes went up. The spending cuts never materialized.
Kamala Harris is losing the fight for the American middle.
As I try to understand public opinion in yet another presidential election year with former President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee, I see an anomaly.
Both nominating conventions are past and election season is heating up. It’s not yet the home stretch but certainly the second half of the game.
Instead of using fossil fuels, we're told to use "clean" energy: wind, solar or hydropower.
Everyone these days -- on both sides of the political spectrum -- seems to want the feds to regulate internet access, prices and online content. They want the Federal Communications Commission to be the referee in terms of who gets connected to the internet and what can and can't be said.
There are two uncompromising sides in the abortion debate -- and then there's the middle, which is where most Americans are.
What if they held a tumultuous election, with an early one-sided debate, a candidate substitution and third-party withdrawal, and no voters changed their minds? Well, that's not exactly what has happened in America's 60th presidential election year, but it's not so far off, either.
Presidential candidate RFK Jr. suspended his campaign last week and endorsed Donald Trump.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s exit from the Democratic Party (or was he booted out?) is only the latest sign that there are no more JFK Democrats left in positions of power in the Democratic Party.
As Donald Trump fights what now looks like an uphill battle against Kamala Harris, many Republicans find themselves thinking back to their high-school sweetheart.
Learning isn't necessarily cumulative. Human experience over the centuries provides lessons, some clearer than others. But each generation has to learn lessons anew, and some do not.
