Senate 2020: The Primary Challengers By Kyle Kondik
No incumbents lost in 2014, 2016, or 2018. Who might be vulnerable in 2020?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The postwar renomination rate for Senate incumbents is 96%. That’s a little bit lower than the rate in the House.
— However, no senators have lost renomination in 13 of the last 19 elections. So recent history does not necessarily suggest that there will be even a single Senate primary loser.
— A few senators appear to face challenges that could threaten them.
— Primary upsets could change the general election odds in some key races.