The 2020 Congressional Elections: A Very Early Forecast By Alan I. Abramowitz
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— A forecasting model based on postwar electoral history along with the president’s approval rating and the House generic ballot points to Democratic gains next fall.
— The model’s projection won’t be finalized until late next summer and will be based on whatever the president’s approval and the House generic ballot polling is at that time.
— The Republicans enjoy some advantages on both the House and Senate map that might allow them to overperform whatever the model’s final projection is.